Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5640 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5640 · DSM → DFW

departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 11:59 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ 9am departures from DSM are usually not late

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.37 in

DFW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5640 · DSM → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?