Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5641 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5641 · ECP → DCA

departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5641 · ECP → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?