Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4236
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 4236 · HIB → MSP
departs 3:47 PM CT · arrives 4:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 8%
Mon 10/19 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave HIB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
HIB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HIB (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.