Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 4726 · DEN → MOT
departs 10:08 AM MT · arrives 1:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MOT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MOT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Gusts to 37 kt forecast at MOT that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
MOT usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.27 in
MOT (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.