Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 5261 · IAH → TUL
departs 7:41 AM CT · arrives 9:32 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.