Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5444
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 5444 · DEN → ASE
departs 7:45 AM MT · arrives 8:46 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
14%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ASE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to ASE?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ASE that day
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into ASE at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.39 in
ASE (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.