Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5884
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 5884 · RAP → DEN
departs 8:40 AM MT · arrives 10:02 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 41%
Wed 10/14 38%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±2 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
8am departures from RAP are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RAP (origin)
Gusts 39 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.