Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
QX 2021 · BOI → LAS
departs 2:26 PM MT · arrives 3:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±18 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.