Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 3064 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

SY 3064 · BWI → BNA

departs 11:30 PM ET · arrives 12:11 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 11pm departures from BWI are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

BNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 3064 · BWI → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?