Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1338 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1338 · FLL → IAH

departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 8:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

IAH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1338 · FLL → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?