Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2737 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2737 · ORD → BWI

departs 3:22 PM CT · arrives 6:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.40 in

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2737 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?