Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2761 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2761 · ORD → DCA

departs 4:53 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.50 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2761 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?