Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 447 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 447 · DEN → BHM

departs 11:16 AM MT · arrives 3:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM

↓ BHM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.37 in

BHM (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 447 · DEN → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?