Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 447 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 16

UA 447 · DEN → BHM

departs 11:03 AM MT · arrives 2:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BHM (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 447 · DEN → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?