Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1005 · BWI → GRR
departs 10:57 AM ET · arrives 12:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into GRR at that hour are usually not late
↓
10am departures from BWI are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.