Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1163
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1163 · LGA → MCI
departs 4:18 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Wed 10/14 37%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 50%
Sun 10/18 27%
Mon 10/19 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.