Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 121
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 121 · ABQ → DEN
departs 10:43 AM MT · arrives 12:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 11%
Mon 10/19 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 43 kt forecast at ABQ that day
↓
10am departures from ABQ are usually not late
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 43 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.