Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 159 · BNA → CLT
departs 5:09 PM CT · arrives 7:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 8%
Mon 10/19 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.