Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3024
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3024 · MHT → BWI
departs 11:29 AM ET · arrives 1:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14 5%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at BWI that day
↓
Other factors
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MHT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.