Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3082
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3082 · MSP → STL
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 9:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 6%
Sat 10/17 5%
Sun 10/18 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into STL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.