Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 1453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
XL 1453 · JFK → GYE
departs 1:58 AM ET · arrives 7:55 AM -05
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GYE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GYE?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GYE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.