Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 1453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 16
XL 1453 · JFK → GYE
departs 1:43 AM ET · arrives 9:16 AM -05
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 17%
Mon 10/19 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at GYE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GYE?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
1am departures from JFK are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GYE
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
GYE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.