Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

YV 6209 · IAD → CLT

departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at IAD that day

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

CLT (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6209 · IAD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?