Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4446 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

YX 4446 · DCA → PIT

departs 8:52 AM ET · arrives 10:11 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at PIT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4446 · DCA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?