Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4736 · LGA → DCA
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 6:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 47%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.