Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5775
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 5775 · DCA → BOS
departs 8:51 AM ET · arrives 10:34 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.