Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4432
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 16
YX 4432 · TYS → LGA
departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 17%
Mon 10/19 21%
Tue 10/20 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
TYS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TYS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.