Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4432
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4432 · TYS → LGA
departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 5:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TYS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.