Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4432 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 3:15 PM ET (15 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

YX 4432 · TYS → LGA

departs 2:52 PM ET · arrives 5:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4432 · TYS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?