Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3804 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:10 AM CT, ETA 12:22 AM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 25 Today

UA 3804 · SWO → DEN

took off 12:10 AM CT · expected to land 12:22 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SWO

Weather at each end

SWO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3804 · SWO → DEN

Odds over time