Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5553 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

9E 5553 · MCN → DTW

departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

MCN (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5553 · MCN → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?