Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1564 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 3:11 PM CT (4 H 21 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

AA 1564 · ORD → LAS

departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 12:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1564 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?