tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1844 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)
Yesterday

AA 1844 · PHL → SAN

took off 4:10 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:00 PM ET → 6:40 PM PT)
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.7d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SAN?

  1. On time or early
    66%
  2. 15–30 min late
    19%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    8%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    4%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.