AA 2122 · AUS → PHL

took off 3:08 PM CT · landed 7:06 PM ET (scheduled 2:54 PM CT → 7:37 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2122 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?