Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2878 LANDED 1:39 AM MT, ~26 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

AA 2878 · ORD → DEN

took off 12:36 AM CT · landed 1:39 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 22h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ 12am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2878 · ORD → DEN

Odds over time