Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

AA 404 · PHL → DFW

departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 5:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 404 · PHL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?