Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 700 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

AC 700 · YYZ → LGA

departs 6:00 AM EDT · arrives 7:36 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 17h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6am departures from YYZ are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LGA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 700 · YYZ → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?