Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 462 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

AS 462 · CMH → SEA

departs 8:35 AM ET · arrives 10:17 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 462 · CMH → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?