AS 781 · SEA → BWI

took off 9:33 PM PT · expected to land 5:11 AM ET (scheduled 9:36 PM PT → 5:41 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 781 · SEA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?