tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday

AV 153 · JFK → MDE

departs 4:43 AM ET · arrives 9:14 AM -05
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 18h after departure
Arrive at MDE more than 15 minutes late?
13% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.2d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to MDE?

  1. On time or early
    86%
  2. 15–30 min late
    7%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    4%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    <1%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    <1%
  6. Cancelled
    1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.