Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
C5 4231 · IAH → BHM
departs 7:33 AM CT · arrives 9:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BHM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.