C5 4237 · HOB → IAH

took off 8:42 AM MT · landed 10:55 AM CT (scheduled 8:21 AM MT → 11:05 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOB that day

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ C5's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ 8am departures from HOB are usually not late

Weather at each end

HOB (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.60 in

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4237 · HOB → IAH

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAH?