Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
C5 4296 · DAY → IAD
departs 10:27 AM ET · arrives 12:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10am departures from DAY are often late
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAY
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
DAY (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.