Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4326
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
C5 4326 · IAD → SYR
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 20%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↑
1pm departures from IAD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Arrivals into SYR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.