C5 4823 · IAD → BUF

took off 6:01 PM ET · landed 6:48 PM ET (scheduled 5:36 PM ET → 6:58 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BUF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4823 · IAD → BUF

Odds over time

How late did it get to BUF?