Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
C5 4862 · ITH → IAD
departs 10:33 AM ET · arrives 12:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ITH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ITH
Weather at each end
ITH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.