Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1706
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
G4 1706 · LAS → FSD
departs 7:35 AM PT · arrives 12:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at FSD that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 543 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.