G4 2128 · FLL → SBN

took off 4:19 PM ET · landed 6:51 PM ET (scheduled 4:02 PM ET → 7:08 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Gusts to 39 kt forecast at FLL that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts39 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.13 in

SBN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2128 · FLL → SBN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBN?