G4 3015 · SRQ → IAD

took off 4:35 PM ET · landed 6:35 PM ET (scheduled 4:28 PM ET → 7:08 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from SRQ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3015 · SRQ → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?