Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 3105
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
G4 3105 · IAD → VPS
departs 12:57 PM ET · arrives 2:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at VPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to VPS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
VPS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.